Abstract: It is estimated that 60 % of the Indian landmass is susceptible to earthquakes of moderate to very high intensity. Earthquakes can disrupt progress and destroy the outcome of developmental efforts over several years. The loss in terms of private and public assets is astronomical, pushing the country back economically by several decades.
Scientific advancements have made it possible to foretell almost all natural disasters with fair degree of accuracy in terms of geographical coverage, likely time of impact and duration of sustenance. However, technology has not yet reached a level where the occurrence of earthquakes can be predicted.
Earthquakes may have widely varying impacts. For example, an earthquake of Magnitude 5 on the Richter Scale might inflict much more damage than an earthquake of magnitude 6 depending on the epicenter and other geographical and infrastructural variables.
In view of the above, the need to evolve an effective quantitative measure of the seismic hazard needs no emphasis. There is, thus, a need to develop metrics, based on rigorous mathematical model, which can be used and interpreted appropriately.
This paper proposes a predictive model for quantitative determination of Seismic Hazard Probability based on the likely occurrence of the quake and facilitates direct comparison of the relative seismic risk in different parts of the country.
Keywords: Earthquakes, Peak Ground Acceleration, Seismic Hazard, Seismic Zoning Map, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Seismic Hazard Probability.
Title: A Predictive Model for Quantitative Determination of Seismic Hazard Probability
Author: Ajeet Bajpai, Dr. NC Wadhwa, Dr. VK Mahna
International Journal of Life Sciences Research
ISSN 2348-313X (Print), ISSN 2348-3148 (online)
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