Abstract: The study examined the extent to which maternal age at first birth, birth intervals, maternal education, preferred family size (ideal number of children) and age at first cohabitation influence fertility. Data from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2014 (RDHS, 2014) were analyzed mainly focusing on women dataset. The overall sample of the survey was 12,699 household (from 492 clusters). However, multiple regression model was used as the main tool of analysis in this study to examine the overall association between the above stated variables on fertility (R) and the degree to which the stated explanatory variables influence fertility (R2). Standardized residuals (errors), p-values, multicollinearity function and normality of errors were used to test the validity of the model (the accuracy of the model). By use of P-value statistic, table I shows that Age at first birth, Birth intervals, Maternal education, Ideal number of children, and Age at first cohabitation are significantly associated with fertility (P-value<0.05). Nevertheless, R2 is 0.349 indicating that 35% of the variation of fertility is determined by Age at first birth, Birth intervals, maternal education, Ideal number of children, and Age at first cohabitation. Therefore, table III shows that the model is accurate since Sig. <0.05, residuals are between ±1.96 (-1.96≤errors≤+1.96), the errors are normally distributed and there is absence of multicollinearity (VIF<10 and tolerance >.02). The results in equation 2 revealed that, for every one unit increase in Ideal number of children, fertility increases by 59 percent as all other independent variables remain unchanged. This has a serious implication to the Rwandan Government. Here the Government should increase the frequency of sensitization on family planning issues. However, for every one additional year of schooling, we predict 0.332 (33 percent) decrease in fertility when other predictor variables remain unchanged. It is seen that better educated women have more attitude towards fertility control.
Keywords: Fertility, Age at first birth, Birth intervals, Maternal education, Ideal number of children, and Age at first cohabitation.
Title: Modelling Drivers of Fertility in Rwanda
Author: Bonus NTAGENGERWA, Felix HAGENIMANA, Denis NDANGUZA, Joseph K. MUNG’ATU
International Journal of Mathematics and Physical Sciences Research
ISSN 2348-5736 (Online)
Research Publish Journals
