Abstract: Palm oil is a vital commodity in Malaysia and it is the largest agricultural contributor to the national gross domestic product especially in the 1990s. Statistical evidence has shown how the demand for this commodity increasing year by year, but the proposed ban to palm oil by the European Parliament’s resolution in 2017 has shaking the country. This paper study the pattern of global export demand on the palm oil before and after the resolution. The developed model based on decomposition time series is employed to analyze the monthly export demand for palm oil. The data from January 2014 to May 2019 were transformed through a series of procedure to decompose the data into seasonal and trend. Then, the constructed decomposition model was used to predict future export demand for twelve months. The empirical evidence shows that the developed model is able to predict the future export of this commodity.
Keywords: Decomposition method, time series, palm oil.
Title: Prediction of Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Export Demand Using Time Series Model: Decomposition Method
Author: Harmila Binti Rooslee, Prof. Madya. Dr. Nor Idayu Mahat
International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations
ISSN 2348-7585 (Online)
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