Abstract: The objective of the study was to determine the risk of incursion of Aphanomyces invadans in Lake Victoria as a result of importation of live fish from the countries in the Zambezi River Basin. The study utilized the quantitative and qualitative risk analysis procedure prescribed under international standards of the World Organization for Animal Health. Data and information was extracted from published literature through systematic review. A protocol for systematic review was developed and used to discipline the identification of relevant literature, methods of review and involvement of stakeholders. A narrative synthesis was done for qualitative data while quantitative data was synthesized by stochastic modelling using @Risk software.
The study found that risk of entry would be 8.6% when risk management measures that are recommended under international standards are applied and would only be 0 if a perfect test is used in the selection of traded fish stock. Exposure assessment indicated that, given entry and release of A. invadans, the agent would likely be disseminated to susceptible fish species in Lake Victoria. There would both direct and indirect consequences of exposure to A. invadans which will be non-negligible. Risk estimation was also non-negligible.
The study demonstrated that risk avoidance and risk reduction are management options available to the aquatic animal health authorities in East African Community Partner States. It concluded that the findings of the study are useful in influencing policy and regulatory decisions of EAC Partner States and in capacity building of aquatic animal health authorities towards targeted surveillance for Aphanomyces invadans in Lake Victoria.
Keywords: import risk analysis Epizootic Ulcerative Syndrome Lake Victoria.
Title: Risk of Incursion of Aphanomyces invadans into Lake Victoria from Zambezi River Basin
Author: Daniel Karugu, Winfred Kyalo
International Journal of Life Sciences Research
ISSN 2348-313X (Print), ISSN 2348-3148 (online)
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